Iran's Foreign Minister Says a Deal With the U.S. Is Almost Finalized

For context, this is the same man whom a member of Iran’s IRGC called an “idiot” — declaring the strait “still closed,” to be opened only “by the order of our leader, Imam Khamenei, not by the tweets of some idiot.” That leaked transmission went viral shortly after Iran’s FM declared Hormuz “completely open.”

That is not to say he hasn’t consolidated power, or that the Iranians haven’t come together since then. But that’s beside the point. What I’m trying to express here is my view on why playing along with the peace deals is in the best interest of the Iranians.

I think the general public discourse has agreed that Iran is fighting this war through its leverage over the crude markets — and therefore the world’s economy. They are doing this by limiting the crude that can get to market, and I believe they are squeezing it for maximum leverage. The giveaway was when they all started talking about how this was Iran’s ticket to becoming a superpower of the world; I viewed that as a tell that they had all gotten together and agreed on a plan forward.

We should note that since then they have been misleading Trump again and again into thinking a deal was near finalization. I believe a few of Trump’s market jawbones were him hearing, through intermediaries, that they actually were about to reach a deal. All Iran has to do is keep the Trump administration on the edge of their seat — just close enough to a deal to minimize their interim industrial damages.

Anyway, I’m rambling, but the main goal is to prolong the closure of the strait for as long as possible, until they get the security and the promises they want. They suffered years and years of sanctions — for what? Ideological beliefs? A little bit more pain, when the prize is right on the doorstep, means nothing to them — especially when it’s the people who are suffering and not the leadership.

I still believe that right as the markets begin to look tight and cracks actually do begin to appear, the Iranians will have the Houthis engage and close the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. That is when either the U.S. engages, or other countries come forward to put an end to it by ensuring Iran gets what it wants.