Stepping in Front of a Freight Train?

Going Short Semis

I went short SMH at $621. And as I typed that last sentence, I watched it tick up to $622. Oh boy.

I feel reasonably confident we’ll continue this decline. The mini-rally we just saw failed to make a higher weekly close — and it’s a Friday. The VIX has pulled back to 18. Add in the SPCX wildcard, and I’m not running for the exits just yet.

The Plan

My ideal sequence: exit the SMH short and rotate into a gold long sometime next week. I’m probably being a bit too cute here — but semis just gave me another shot at the entry I’ve been waiting for, and I couldn’t walk away from it.

This is a purely technical trade. I honestly don’t have a better explanation for this trade. Sorry. Might have been better not to take it.